Predictability in the Irish Leaving Certificate: Research Findings

This research was sponsored by the State Examinations Commission (SEC) of Ireland, as part of the Department of Education and Skills (DES) (2013) policy, 'Supporting a better transition from second level to Higher Education: Key directions and next steps'. The following text is based on excerpts taken from the introductory sections of the following two reports published as part of the research findings on 'Predictability in the Irish Leaving Certificate':

Predictability in the Leaving Certificate: Overall Report. By Oxford University Centre for Educational Assessment and Queen's University, Belfast.

Predictability in the Irish Leaving Certificate Examination. Working Paper 2: Examination Materials Research. By Ayesha Ahmed and Jo-Anne Baird, Oxford University Centre for Educational Assessment and Queen's University, Belfast.

In March 2013, Ruairí Quinn, the then Minister for Education and Skills, announced this project and his commitment to tackle any problematic predictability in the Leaving Certificate examinations. In introducing these policies, the Minister wrote, Ireland needs students and graduates who are critical thinkers and problem solvers with an intrinsic enjoyment of acquiring and using knowledge. Reducing over-reliance on rote learning and 'teaching to the test' which inhibit that kind of broad learning experience at second level is a key objective of this work. Part of achieving that will lie in addressing problematic predictability in the Leaving Certificate examination and the existence of an unnecessarily granulated grading system.

Predictability in examinations is not necessarily problematical; it is the negative effects that it may have upon learning that could be problematical. The research questions go beyond whether the topic and format of the examinations are predictable because concerns about predictability are linked with deeper issues of the kind of learning associated with examining systems. Previous relevant research, conducted in other countries, has linked formulaic, predictable examinations with drilling, teaching to the test and superficial learning. 

Critiques of high-stakes testing systems internationally share the following common features:

• the standards are too low
• the tests do not prepare students for higher education
• students do not have the basic skills needed for employment
• problem-solving, social and communication skills are not fostered by the curriculum
• examinations are stressful for students
• students will not be able to compete internationally in the jobs market
• the examinations are not fit for purpose 

The following questions are tackled in this part of the programme:

1. What kinds of learning are the examinations intended to promote?
2. How predictable are examination questions in the Leaving Certificate in Ireland?
3. Which aspects of this predictability are helpful and which engender unwanted approaches to learning?
4. What are the syllabus and assessment design phenomena associated with predictability?
5. What subject-specific phenomena are associated with predictability? 

See also the blog on this website, 'Radical Changes to Leaving Certificate grading system & points system'.